Will Obama Move to the Center?

Reality is sinking in from Tuesday’s ‘shellacking’ at the polls and the Obama administration now finds itself faced with a strategic decision.   Will it continue with its 2008 agenda and hope that voters finally come to their senses and realize the brilliance of The One?  Or will the administration compromise on key issues and move to the ideological center to attract Independents ahead of the 2012 election?

Paul Krugman and the party’s liberal wing blame their present woes on not being liberal enough.  To them, the administration had already compromised too much with Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats.  Just this past week, Krugman laid out in the New York Times that the $787 billion ‘stimulus’ bill was too small to begin with.  The real political catastrophe for the Democrats, according to Krugman, was that they didn’t spend enough.

Furthermore, Congressman Raul Grijalva and other liberal members lamented that they would have been better off if the healthcare overhaul had ignored objections and included a public option.

Meanwhile, the more pragmatic Democrats are looking back to the Clinton administration and how it responded to the Republican takeover of the House in 1994.  Clinton responded by compromosing with the Republicans on key issues – and he was rewarded handsomely.  Unemployment fell from 5.8 percent in 1994 to 5.2% in 1996 and Clinton won re-election handily.

So which side will prevail?

President Obama faces decision to move to the center

At this point, there is no indication that the Obama administration will choose the latter option and move to the political center.  Leading up to the election, Obama arrogantly dismissed the public’s message, alluding that Americans just don’t understand what’s in their best interest.  At a Democratic fundraiser in Boston, he reasoned:

“People out there are still hurting very badly, and they are still scared. And so part of the reason that our politics seems so tough right now, and facts and science and argument does not seem to be winning the day all the time, is because we’re hard-wired not to always think clearly when we’re scared.”

Standing his ground after the political wipeout, Obama told reporters:

“I think we’d be misreading the election if we thought that the American people want to see us for the next two years relitigate arguments that we had over the last two years.”

A Republican majority in the House will likely deter the administration from chasing after some of its initial agenda items, such as union card check.  But there are two caveats.

The first is that the current Congress may reconvene and make a last-ditch effort to pass liberal items during the lame duck session.  Don’t be surprised if the Democrat majority goes after card check or cap and trade before the new Congress is sworn in next January.

The second caveat is regulation through the executive branch.  If Congress does not tackle cap and trade, then the Obama administration will go elsewhere to move its agenda forward.  The EPA, or ‘Plan B’, is already taking steps toward placing costly limits on carbon emissions.

If the administration remains tone deaf, rest assured that the scared voters will set their sights on the White House in 2012.