The Final Countdown

By Cliff Smith

After much preparation, on-the-fly adjustments, and spilling of (metaphorical) blood, E-Day is almost upon us.

Much about this election is already clear.  The Democrats, with their near supermajority status in both the House and the Senate, will be taking a serious beating. The party in control, particularly after a big Presidential win, usually suffers setbacks in its first mid-term.  However, this is not a generic bad mid-term. The Republican base is very enthusiastic, the Democrats much less so, and Independents, who generally broke to Democrats by a 2-1 margin in the last two cycles, appear likely to mirror those margins for Republicans this cycle.

The Democrats will almost certainly lose over 40 seats in the House and with it control. They will lose a significant number of Senate seats as well. The Republicans need 10 seats to take control of the Senate, which is an extremely tall order. They are  likely to win at least seven additional seats, though, and there are at least four more that could realistically flip, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

The only real question on election day is whether the Democrats are in for a mere “wave” election, as the Republicans experienced in 2006 when they lost 31 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate; a “Big Wave” as in 1994, when they lost 52 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate; or some sort of “Super Wave” unprecedented in recent history. The last true “Super Wave” was back to 1932 when Republicans lost 101 seats in the House and 12 seats in the Senate.

For at least a month, it’s been clear that a mere “wave” election is unlikely. At risk of flipping are retiring Democratic open seats, freshman and sophomore Democratic members in territory ranging from neutral to hostile to very hostile, and with longtime Democratic incumbents in swing and conservative districts facing their most difficult challenges ever. Democrats would have to claw to keep their majority in the House and were very unlikely to do so. Republicans, in fact, were likely to pick up the House by a comfortable, if small margin. Some Democrats may get out enough of their voters to avoid a catastrophic loss, it won’t be enough to avoid a serious bloodletting.  Early and absentee voting, which Democrats hoped to use to increase their turnout, has instead lead to large Republican turnout in most states, particularly in several critical states.

So it is now likely that the Democrats are facing, at least, a “Big Wave” scenario with losses in the House of at least 50 or higher, and at least seven seats in the Senate or higher.  Most political prognosticators have around 30 seats going to the Republicans even before you get to the “tossup” races.  And in wave years, the party riding the wave usually wins the lion’s share of “tossup” seats, which would give Republicans well north of a 50-seat gain in the House.

The data is making even this scenario look generous to the Democrats.  In the final days, races previously thought of as true “swing” races are looking increasingly like easy Republican pickups.  For example, in Georgia’s eighth Congressional District, moderate Democrat Jim Marshall was essentially tied with state Rep. Austin Scott for several months.  The last poll had Marshall down 13.  Frm. Rep Steve Pierce was struggling to put away Rep. Harry Teague in New Mexico’s second Congressional District, sometimes trailing him by a point or two and never leading by more then a point or two.  Pierce now leads by seven.

Likewise, districts that looked just out of reach are looking better and better. Virginia’s ninth Congressional district looked ripe for a Republican pickup, McCain won big there, and longtime incumbent Rick Boucher voted for several of Obama’s most controversial proposals.  Yet he has consistently lead Assemblyman Morgan Griffith, often by double digits, in the months leading up to the election.  The last poll had them tied.  The same situation for Congressman John Salazar in Colorado’s third Congressional district.  He’s currently trailing State Rep. Scott Tipton.  The open seat in Massachusetts 10^th Congressional District looked appetizing, Scott Brown won 60/40 in this district, but Obama took it by 12 and with a strong nominee in Norfolk DA Bill Keating, it was long thought to be a Democratic hold.  No more.  Polls increasingly show the race to be a dead heat.

Finally, what’s even worse for Democrats, is that races that once looked far out of reach seem suddenly to be competitive.  In Rhode Island’s first Congressional District, State Rep. John Loughlin was running a strong race in an open seat race to replace the last Kennedy in Congress, Rep. Patrick Kennedy, an overwhelmingly Democratic state at a Presidential level.  But he was trailing consistently in the polls and being out raised badly by his Democratic opponent.  However, an increasingly bad national mood, corruption allegations against his opponent, and a public increasingly receptive to his message leaves Loughlin within the margin of error in two recent polls, which got him over $180,000 worth of donations in the last few weeks to make a final push.  Recent polls also show both of Maine’s Congressional districts looking competitive, a complete shocker since both Republican challengers are relatively unknown businessman with modest fundraising numbers.  Adam Smith in Washington’s ninth Congressional district faces a credible challenger in Pierce County Councilman Dick Muri, but Muri has been out fundraised by a 10-1 margin and the district leans Democratic.  The last poll had Smith in the margin of error.

In the end, the Republicans won’t win most of the races that seemed out of reach, but the fact that they are even being discussed (and infused with emergency funds from various Democratic party entitles) shows the nature of the coming wave.  It will likely be bigger then even a traditional “Big Wave” although perhaps not quite a “Super Wave” like a 1932 like blowout.  Looking at the 152 most competitive races, I have Republicans picking up 67 seats (70 pickups, 3 losses for the R’s).  Is that generous?  Possibly.  But it could just as easily be stingy.

The Senate is a little harder to tell because they are much higher profile and as such, incumbent Senators are sometimes less susceptible to waves since voters know them.  It is also being waged on turf less friendly to Republicans.  None-the-less, the Democrats have managed to seriously threaten none of the Republican held seats, including open seats in states Obama carried such as Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire.  Meanwhile, Republicans are all but guaranteed to pick up Senate seats in Indiana, North Dakota and Arkansas.  They are also favored to pick up seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  Nevada and Colorado are very close, but Republicans have seen a last minute slight uptick in the polls, which shows that they are slightly favored to win both of them as well.  That gives them a 7-seat gain.

The remaining races are difficult.  In California, longtime incumbent, the controversial Barbara Boxer, has never managed to break 50% in any poll in months and months. But she seems to be pulling out a lead in the final weeks, although still not over the magical 50% number.  Still, she’s favored to win. Similarly, even with Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s missteps, World Wrestling Enterprises CEO Linda McMahon’s millions do not appear to be enough to win.  Blumenthal’s numbers now appear to be sticking above 50%.   West Virginia is an odd state that votes very Republican at a Presidential level in the last 3 cycles, but is completely dominated by Democrats at a local level.  Governor Joe Manchin has high job approval ratings, yet Obama has extremely low approval ratings in the state and Manchin took a beating for months for backing Obama’s health care bill and other controversial Obama measures and he fell behind Businessman John Raese.  After switching gears, and running as a very conservative Democrat, Manchin has see his poll numbers rise and overtake Raese in several polls.  Will it hold?  I don’t know.  Finally, Dino Rossi is giving Patty Murray the race of her life in Washington State and in the last poll, leads Murray by one percent and by two percent among voters who have already voted.  Yet given the lean of the state and Murray’s history of defying the odds, it’s hard to call Murray the underdog.

That leaves us with something between a “Big Wave” and a “Super Wave” as the most likely outcome.  Democrats are going to take very painful losses and it will be a clear rebuke for the President and his administration.  But if they will take unprecedented losses remains to be seen.

For an early indicator on Election Day, look to the state of Indiana.  Indiana is home to an open seat Senate race and three competitive House races and is among the first to have its polls close.  The Senate race is likely Republican, but if Republican Dan Coats wins by more then 15 or so points, that will be a sign that the wave will be very big.  Of the three house races, one appears to be clearly leaning Republican, one appears to be a tossup with a slight Republican lead, the other a tossup with a slight Democratic lead.  If Republicans win only one of these, it’s very possible the data and pundits are wrong and the wave will be relatively small.  If Republicans win two, we’ll see.  If Republicans win all three, the “mini-Super Wave” is the most likely outcome.