The 10th Man … and the 11th… and the 12th: The Senate Playing Field Expands

By Cliff Smith

In 2006, public opinion held that Democrats could not retake the Senate.  Oh sure, the political environment was horrible for Republicans. Democrats were assured of winning several seats, but they needed to pick up six to have a majority and only five were likely to flip. Then all that changed. For a while, it looked as though Rep. Harold Ford (D) might be able to win the open seat in Tennessee, and Sen. George Allen (R) of Virginia had his “macaca” moment. Viola!  Seven seats were play. Ford lost, by a scant three percent, but so did Allen, by only a few thousand votes. The Democrats won six seats and took over control of the Senate.

Until just recently, the math looked similar, if not even more daunting, for Republicans.  Oh sure, they were going to make gains, but they needed to pick up 10 seats to take control and there were at most 9 in play.

Things change.

Enter Dino Rossi, in Washington State, the “10th man,” setting up a dramatic Republican challenge to incumbent Senator Patty Murray, a three-term senator whose meteoric rise is legendary in her home state.  A self-described “citizen lobbyist” in her early 30’s, Murray was dismissed as a “mom in tennis shoes” when she ran for State Senate in 1988.  Milking the comment for it for all it was worth, Murray won.

Four years later, instead of seeking re-election, she launched a quixotic challenge to an incumbent Democratic US Senator. As a one-term State Senator, she had virtually no chance of winning…until the incumbent dropped out due to a sex scandal.  Murray rode the “Year of the Woman” to a comfortable victory. She similarly dispatched two other respected and well-funded opponents in her subsequent re-election bids.

If anybody’s rise to prominence is less likely then Murray’s, it’s Rossi’s. Rossi’s political career has been a little more up and down than Murray’s.  Rossi grew up in a poor family that struggled at times to stay together. He worked his way through Seattle University Business School as a janitor, sometimes mopping up Seattle’s famous Space Needle.  After graduation, he got involved in real estate and made himself a small fortune.   His skills as an honest, sharp and driven salesman attracted the attention of local political folks who urged him to run for State Senate in Sammamish, a Seattle suburb.  He lost his first race, but won his second and eventually became chairman of the budget committee.

Rossi displayed his persuasive skills during the budget battle of the 2002-2003 recessions. Rossi was convinced that the budget must be balanced without raising taxes.  Furthermore, he was convinced that he could get his Democratic colleagues, who controlled both the State House and the Governor’s Mansion, to go along with him.  “We shouldn’t raise taxes on people who are unemployed to pay for raises for those that still have jobs,” Rossi said when Democrats demanded raises for public employees. It worked.  Governor (now Commerce Secretary) Gary Locke agreed with Rossi and worked with him over his own party leaders in the House to pass the biennium budget that year. With other potential candidates for Governor said “No” to a run for Governor, Republican leaders turned to Rossi.  They didn’t think he had much of a chance of beating then Attorney General Christine Gregoire in this very blue leaning state, but he at least put a good face on the party.

Turns out they underestimated Rossi.  He won.  Err…sort of, anyway.   Rossi was the winner of the first vote count by 261 votes.  When the automatic recount was completed, he was ahead by 42 votes. A final hand count, paid for by the Gregoire campaign, after 700 some ballots were “found” uncounted in heavily Democratic King County, left Rossi 129 votes shy of victory.  A month-long court battle revealed hundreds of illegally cast ballots and serious questions about thousands more, but ultimately left Gregoire in the Governor’s mansion.

People expected a rematch in 2008, and they got one. Gregoire was not well liked, but Obama won 58% of the vote in the state and many Democrats simply voted the party line. Rossi ran eleven points ahead of McCain’s campaign, three points better then his 2004 effort, but it still wasn’t enough and he only got 47% of the vote.

Still, Rossi remains relatively popular in the state, particularly for a Republican.  Many prominent Republicans urged Rossi to challenge Murray for the Senate seat.  After thinking about it until almost the filing deadline, Rossi took the plunge.  He also raised over $1.4 million dollars in the month following his announcement and nearly $600,000 in July. Polling has Rossi within a few points of Murray, and Murray is consistently under 50%, a “red alert” zone for incumbents.  It’s sure to be a competitive race.

Not long after Rossi entered the Washington race, it become clear that the Wisconsin Senate race is also in play. Three-term incumbent Russ Feingold seemed to have dodged a bullet when former Governor (and HHS Secretary) Tommy Thompson declined to run.  Feingold had always had relatively close races, particularly in 1998 when he won 51-49, but Wisconsin, a typical battleground state, went heavily for Obama. Furthermore, Feingold was personally popular due to his squeaky-clean image and reputation for independence from his party, even with his hard-left leaning views. It didn’t look as though any of the candidates could take him down.

Ron Johnson entered the race in May.  Johnson, an Oshkosh businessman who founded a very successful medical device packaging company, was virtually unknown. Nobody paid him much attention.  Sure, he was wealthy enough to self-fund and was probably preferable to some of the lower-key candidates who had gotten into the race, but he didn’t look like a serious threat to Feingold.

However, as Johnson traveled around the state, people really seemed to like him.  He won over both the establishment Republicans and a lot of the “tea party” crowd. His entrepreneurial “rags to riches” struck a chord in this anti-Washington year. Two of his primary opponents dropped out and endorsed him, leaving him with only nominal primary opposition.  As his campaign started to heat up, so did his poll numbers.  The Real Clear Politics average of a number of polls shows him trailing Feingold by only 1.8%.

Finally, and totally unexpectedly, the West Virginia race came into play with the death of Sen. Robert Byrd, the longest serving Senator in US history.  After some confusion about how a special election would work, and some action by the state legislature to clarify the situation, a special election was called for this November.

West Virginia is an odd state.  Byrd had never been seriously challenged and was a near saint in his home state.  Democrats control two of the state’s three Congressional districts, all of its statewide offices, and both houses of the state legislature. However, West Virginia has gone Republican in the last three Presidential elections. Obama is increasingly unpopular in the state, getting only 35% approval ratings.  His signature achievement, the Health Care Reform bill, is even less popular then he is.

Like many of West Virginia’s voters, Gov. Joe Manchin is a conservative Democrat with 70+% approval ratings. Soon after Byrd’s death, Manchin announced his intention to run for the seat. Rep. Shelly Moore Capito, the most prominent Republican in the state, announced that she would pass on the race. Again, the Democrats breathed a sigh of relief.  Others, however, were not so sure.

For one thing, Manchin’s takes popular positions on local issues, but when he starts having to run on national issues, things get complicated. He endorsed Obama’s stimulus Health Care Reform bills, both deeply unpopular in West Virginia. His endorsement of the Health Care Reform contradicts his pro-life stance. Finally, Manchin’s campaign has no money. So even initially, he has weaknesses.

What’s potentially much worse is that it was recently announced that the Governor is the target of a federal corruption probe. While there is no fire yet, and Manchin insists that he’s cooperating fully, there’s a lot of smoke.  Notably, Rep. Allan Mollohan was just defeated in the Democratic primary, largely due to allegations of corruption that were investigated but ultimately dismissed, and his support of the Health Care Reform bill.

What’s more, the Republicans have a candidate who seems poised to take advantage of these weaknesses.  The likely Republican nominee, John Raese, is an extremely successful businessman who has run for Senate before.  He lost by a whisker to now Senator John Rockefeller years ago, and by a larger margin to the sainted Byrd in 2006.  Still, his name identification remains high and voters have an overall positive view of him.  He’s already targeting Manchin for supporting Obama’s deeply unpopular agenda, and he has the resources to immediately pounce on the corruption probe.

Of these three races, West Virginia is probably the least likely to flip.  But the potential is there for a come-from-behind win. Washington and Wisconsin are clearly competitive and are ranked as either toss-ups or slightly leaning-Democrat by the major independent observers.

Even with 10th, 11th and 12th Senate seats in play, capturing the upper chamber will be an extremely tall order for Republicans. They will have to win every tossup and a few races that lean Democrat.  Nonetheless, most of the Senate races break overall in one direction or the other. This is particularly true during wave years, which many observers expect this to be due to Obama’s low approval ratings, the poor state of the economy, and a number of controversial bills passed by Congress.  In any event, due to Rossi, Johnson, and Raese, the potential is there.