An Ohio Auto Dealer and the Scott Brown Effect

About a month ago, Scott Brown and his truck dazzled Massachusetts and the nation. About a week ago, an auto dealer named Tom Ganley jumped into the race for Ohio’s 13th District. While Ganley’s decision is much lower profile and isn’t likely to end with invitations to date his daughters, election observers should be equally as dazzled.

Why? Because Ganley’s decision punctuates and explains the political environment and how difficult it has become for Democrats.

Tom Ganley is a wealthy Ohio businessman who owns numerous car dealerships. Being less than thrilled with the direction the Obama administration, he decided sometime last year to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Senator George Voinovich. He was prepared to spend some of his millions of dollars to introduce himself to voters, play up his success in business and hopefully become the next Senator from Ohio.

His plan had one minor hitch: Rob Portman was already in the race. Portman, a highly respected former Representative from Ohio’s 2nd district who also served as U.S. Trade Representative and OMB Director, had already raised millions and gathered support all around the state. What’s more, the Democrats in the Ohio Senate race, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lt. Governor Lee Fischer, were locked in a bloody primary while Portman, previously, had no primary rival. Ganley’s primary challenge made political operatives in both Washington and Ohio less than thrilled, as Rob Portman had been stockpiling cash and working the crowds without having to worry about his primary.

Ganley tried to play up Portman’s Washington ties and tried to portray himself as the “true conservative” outsider. While Portman is most assuredly a creature of Washington in a year Washington wasn’t popular, his deep ties to movement conservatives and solidly conservative record kept him from upsetting the anti-Washington “Tea Party” crowd. Ganley’s attempt to portray the race as outsider/insider didn’t go anywhere. Ganley could bloody up Rob Portman, but he couldn’t win the nomination. Yet, he had already donated $1.6 million to his Senate campaign. What should he do?

A little over a week ago, Ganley took the remaining $1.3 million in his Senate campaign and declared he was switching races to run for Congress in Ohio’s 13th district just a few days before the filing deadline. Previous to his entry, Republicans had no candidate in Ohio’s 13th district. Incumbent Betty Sutton only has roughly $200,000 in her campaign account because she didn’t expect a real race. Why should she? Obama won the district 57-42 and Republicans hadn’t won this district since 1974! But with Ganley’s deep ties to the community and his deep pockets, this will clearly be a real race.

If this were an isolated incident, it might not mean much. But it’s not. In fact, the GOP is getting numerous solid recruits in districts that they previously hadn’t seriously considered contesting and have thinned out numerous primaries with candidates dropping out to run for other offices.

For example, in Pennsylvania, Rep. Jim Gerlach was running for Governor. His House seat is one of the few in the nation that went for both Kerry and Obama but was held by a Republican. With Gerlach’s departure, the seat looked to be leaning Democratic. However, when it became clear that Gerlach’s primary opponent, Attorney General Tom Corbett, was the heavy favorite, Gerlach decided to run for his old House seat instead. Gerlach is heavily favored to keep his seat. Similarly, former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan was also running for Governor, but also dropped out and decided to run for Congress in Pennsylvania’s 7th district, which is being vacated by Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak. He’s currently raised more money then any non-incumbent for a House race.

I could list countless other examples. Snohomish County Councilman John Koster is running against Rep. Rick Larsen in Washington’s 2nd district. Former State Treasurer Joe Malone is running for Congress against Rep. Bill Dalahunt in Massachusetts 10th district. Ashland County District Attorney Sean Duffy is running against Rep. David Obey in Wisconsin’s 7th district. Ed Martin, Former Chief of Staff for Missouri Governor Matt Blunt, is running for Congress in Missouri’s 3rd district against Russ Carnahan. The list could go on and on.

These races have a few things in common. In every instance, Obama won the district, sometimes by double digits, Republicans rarely have strong recruits in these districts and Republicans have a real shot at wining all of these districts. In some cases, they are favored.

This phenomenon, strong recruits running in Democratic leaning districts, could be called the “Scott Brown effect.” Scott Brown’s historic victory over Martha Coakley showed that even in an area where Obama won heavily, 62% of the vote in Massachusetts, Republicans can win. Voter anger over Obama’s unmet expectations, extremely high deficit spending (particularly after criticizing Bush’s much more modest deficits), cozy relationship with big banks and Wall Street, confusion over various terrorism related issues and especially the ongoing health care debacle where Democrats seem determined to push a bill through regardless of the will of the people, coupled with the traditional anti-incumbent party pull of off-year elections, means that Republican candidates think they can win, even if the district would have looked difficult or even impossible a few years ago.

Keep in mind, this isn’t counting the fact that 49 Democratic Congressman are running in districts that were won by John McCain in ’08, which was hardly a high-watermark for Republicans. These Democrats are almost by definition vulnerable and in every instance I am aware of, they have at the very least a credible challenger. In most cases, they have excellent challengers.

The all-hands-on-deck approach to this election, in which many Republicans seem to be willing for any office in which they can make a serious contribution, will pay serious dividends. Electoral politics is a lot like a battlefield in the sense that if you force your opponent to defend more territory, your opponent must spread out their resources, which makes their line much more likely to break. In races like this, win or lose, that is exactly what candidates like Ganley, Koster, Malone and Duffy are doing and Republicans will win seats as a result.

To a certain extent, this is a chicken or the egg problem. Is it going to be a good year because Republicans have strong recruits? Or are Republicans getting good recruits because it’s going to be a strong year? The answer, paradoxically, is yes to both questions.

In any event, Ganley’s decision shows just how good things are for Republicans right now going into the 2010 elections.