Arizona: 2010 Election Battleground

There are only two ways to run for elected office: unopposed and scared.

-A wise politician

With nearly seven months before Arizona’s primary elections on August 24, candidates have launched into full campaign mode establishing ground in what is already a contentious year for politics. In fact, Sen. Jon Kyl may be the only Arizona politician able to sleep comfortably since the rest of his colleagues from Arizona face challenges from all directions.

In 2006 and 2008, Republicans inched away from an unpopular President Bush while Democrats campaigned against the Bush agenda up and down the ballot. But within only one year of President Obama’s tenure, the Republicans have gone on the offensive and it is now the Democrats avoiding photo opportunities in the Oval Office.

Reps. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8) and Harry Mitchell (AZ-5) are the two Arizona Democrats most likely to lose their seats to a Republican challenger in November. Giffords and Mitchell, both in their second term [corrected], took over Congressional districts previously held by Republicans.

One of Rep. Mitchell’s saving qualities is that he ranks very low on the ‘party unity’ scale. He has voted with the Democrats only 63 percent of the time and so far it has been his re-election theme. In a speech earlier this year to the Tempe Chamber of Commerce, Rep. Mitchell reminded constituents that he voted against the past three Democrat budgets, the auto bailout as well as recent attempts to raise the national debt ceiling. Additionally, Rep. Mitchell never misses an opportunity to fight in favor of retaining the Bush tax cuts.

Rep. Giffords, however, has been more closely aligned with the Obama agenda on health care reform and costly cap-and-trade legislation. Democrat lawmakers had an ambitious agenda last year but failed to get either measure on the President’s desk for signature. Meanwhile, American attitudes toward hope and change began to give way to fear over federal deficits and the national debt.

Of recent, Rep. Giffords has voiced strong opposition to the Senate health bill suggesting it would add $4 billion to an Arizona budget that is already on the verge of financial collapse. Her newfound fiscal concern, however, may be a day late and a dollar short.

Republican challengers, including Jesse Kelly and Jonathan Paton, will certainly call attention to Rep. Giffords’ liberal voting record. But their major obstacle to election victory will be money. At the end of 2009, Rep. Giffords’ campaign bank account was seven times larger than the combined accounts of her Republican challengers.

Last, but certainly not least, the marquee matchup in Arizona will not be fought in the general election. Rather, it will be in the Senate Republican primary between incumbent John McCain and former Congressman and ex-talk show host JD Hayworth.

To date, JD Hayworth has not even formally declared his entry into the Senate race. But the longstanding threat and pending election bid from conservative Hayworth has forced Sen. McCain to shed the ‘maverick’ moniker and to adorn the endorsements of former running mate Sarah Palin and Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

Palin and Brown owe much of their political careers to Sen. McCain and voters understand that their endorsement of the Arizona Senator is based on loyalty. Regardless, it will be interesting to test the reach of Sarah Palin’s political influence. If she can actually convince tea partiers in Arizona to vote for the moderate, then America should look out for Palin in 2012.

Prepare for a long season. It’s not even Spring Training yet and the teams are making plans for victory in November.